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Next session — what lands before the next close, in SGT
Brief
Six things to know before the open. Desk view; live odds chips are computed.
Scenario maps — odds × impact
Outcome probabilities come live from prediction markets, and the desk sets each outcome's next-session move. Priced = probability-weighted move. Stake = best minus worst outcome. Surprise = the least likely outcome's move relative to what is priced.
Odds board
Every tracked prediction market (Polymarket, Kalshi). Δ in percentage points; z = today's move ÷ 30-day odds volatility. Click a row for every outcome, the transmission channel and the market betas.
Odds trends
What moved, what is trending (14-day logit slope, t-stat), and how markets trade with the odds: same-day betas over ~6 months, in-sample and not causal.
Headline odds — last 7 days, hourly
Leading outcome of each headline market, hourly prints (every 2h). The shaded band is 0–100%; the dashed line is 50%.
Odds momentum — daily change of each market's leading outcome, last 30 days
Green = probability rose that day, red = fell. Intensity is scaled to ±10pp. Rows are sorted by theme; settled markets are left out.
When does the market expect it? — term structure of dated markets
Dated ("by …") markets give a cumulative probability curve. Bars show the implied chance the event happens inside each window (the increment between rungs), so you can see whether the market expects it soon or late. "Holds through …" markets are survival curves; there the red bars are the chance it breaks inside each window. Rungs whose date has passed are dropped.
Economies
Each major economy's government, the policy shifts in motion, its markets and odds, and the next 60 days. Stability (1–5) is desk judgement; every claim links to a dated source.
Policy-shift tracker
Live policy changes that move prices, ranked by how soon the next decision lands. Direction is mechanism (graded model), not tested.
Decision runway — next 70 days
Political risk gauges
Daily news-based indices: US Economic Policy Uncertainty (Baker–Bloom–Davis) and Geopolitical Risk (Caldara–Iacoviello), plus the market's own stress gauges.
Economic Policy Uncertainty — US, daily
Geopolitical Risk — daily
Transmission board
The instruments political shocks travel through. Yields in bp. σ = today's move ÷ 60-session daily st.dev; 52w = where the price sits in its one-year range.
Today in σ — which transmission channels are moving
Today's move ÷ 60-session daily st.dev, by group. Beyond ±2σ (shaded) is a political-grade day.
How markets reacted — event studies
35 political shocks, measured close-to-close from the last close before the outcome. Cells show the move and its size in σ. In-sample, small-n: a sense of scale, not a forecast.
Shock scale by group — next-session move in σ
Each dot is one event's t+1 move for that asset, in σ (60-session daily st.dev). Beyond ±2σ is a day the market rarely sees; the 2026 Brazil runoff and Brexit sit far outside it.
Calendar
Political events (sourced; unconfirmed dates marked) merged with central-bank decisions and top-tier data, in SGT.
Catalyst density — political and central-bank events per week
Playbook
Conditional setups around the catalysts. Active ones are archived and scored against later closes; conditional ones wait for their trigger.
Ledger
Every sourced fact behind the page, what could not be confirmed, data health, doctrine and method.